– Two-thirds of pupils have consistently low absence trajectories,
while one-third demonstrate some form of moderate to high
absence trajectories over the compulsory schooling period.
– More than one-fourth of pupils have consistently moderate
– Three smaller groups have moderately increased unauthorised,
strongly increasing authorised, and strongly increasing
– All identified absence trajectories have a detrimental impact
on GCSE achievement in year 11, with increasing unauthorised
absences having the most harmful impact.
– While extreme levels of unauthorised absences are most
detrimental, a narrow policy focus on this absentee group will
miss many students with other absence trajectories, whose
impact is also harmful to achievement.
– The findings emphasise the need for a nuanced approach
to combating absenteeism, including tailored support for
students in different absence trajectory groups.